AFC Bournemouth hosts Sheffield United in the first round of the Premier League this weekend at Dean Court/Vitality Stadium.The Blades look to kick off the season in top form after sealing promotion with a second-place finish in the Championship last season. They return to the tournament after a 12-year absence.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Dafabet Odds
Team to Win (Regular Time)
AFC Bournemouth: 1.90
Draw: 3.84
Sheffield United: 4.12
Spread
AFC Bournemouth -0.5: 2.03
Sheffield United +0.5: 1.90
Total
Over 2.5: 1.98
Under 2.5 1.92
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a about an 26 percent chance this weekend’s match ends in a draw. That happens in 21 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added value on the pick.
The projected score is 2.24 – 0.96, in favor of Crystal Palace.
Playing with Momentum: Bournemouth enters this match with quite a bit of momentum. They dominated Lyon 3-0 recently in a friendly match. Four of the last five outings for the Cherries have hit the OVER on 2.5 goals. They have zero draws in their last five overall.
Opening Day Magic: Bournemouth opened up last season with a 2-0 home win vs Cardiff.
Head to Head: It has been quite a while since these two sides last matched up. We have to look all the way back to Feb. 2013 when Sheffield defeated Bournemouth 1-0. They’ve only met 4 times overall, and never in Premier League action.
Over/Under Trends: Two of the last four meetings between these sides yielded an OVER of 2.5 goals, with both sides scoring. The other two matches had Sheffield recording clean sheets.
Projected Leaders
Billy Sharp has close to a 35 percent chance to score for Sheffield this weekend. He averages 1.28 shots overall per sim, 0.55 shots on goal per and 0.42 goals per sim.
Callum Wilson has a 49-to-50 percent chance to net the ball for Bournemouth. He averages 2.47 shots overall per sim, 1.13 shots on goal per and 0.67 goals per sim. Joshua King averages more shots overall, but is less accurate.
Analyst’s Pick
AFC Bournemouth -0.5
Odds indicate there’s a 49 percent chance Bournemouth win this match. They win 65.5 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting quite a bit of side value on the pick.
