This week’s Premier League action wraps up Monday as Aston Villa hosts West Ham at Villa Park in Birmingham. Villa heads in as slight favorites.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)

Aston Villa: 2.64
Draw: 3.70
West Ham: 2.62

Spread
Aston Villa -0.5: 2.31
West Ham United +0.5: 1.70

Total
Over 2.5: 1.80<s/stong>
Under 2.5: 2.11

What to Watch For

Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a 27 percent chance this matchup ends in a draw. That happens in 26 percent of sims, suggesting no added value on the pick.

The average score in sims is 1.85 – 1.52, in favor of West Ham.

Last Time Out: Villa lost on the road vs Crystal Palace, 1-0, thier last time out. West Ham enter this matchup with some momentum, defeating Norwich 2-0 at home a couple weeks back.

Attack: West Ham have clearly been aggressive this season, but aren’t finding the net as often as expected. They’re tired for league-lead in hitting woodwork. They are No. 3in the league in goals from inside the box.

Head to Head: These two sides last met in Premier League action — or in any competition — back on Feb. 2, 2016. West Ham won, 2-0.

Projected Leaders

For West Ham, we’ll have our eyes on Sébastien Haller who has a 52+ percent chance to score. He averages close to two shots overall per sim, 1 shot on goal per and 0.72 goals per sim.

John McGinn has close to a 28 percent chance to score for Aston Villa. McGinn averages 3.34 shots overall per sim, 1.18 shots on goal per and 0.32 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

West Ham to win.

Whereas offshore odds-makers have Aston Villa as slight favorites, simulation data has West Ham winning more simulated matchups than do Villa. Odds indicate West Ham have a 38 percent chance to win; they win over 44 percent of simulations. The average score in sims is 1.85 – 1.52, in favor of West Ham.

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